N18 Escher "The Dragonflies"

[MrAndersson]

I was using https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance as the basis for my theory.

Variance means nothing without expected value. So start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

In this case, you could look at what level of firepower you need to direct towards an Escher leader or champion in order to attain a 1/12 chance of taking them out. You will realize that, by using maximum firepower with a plasma weapon, you are essentially giving your opponent a free shot at you with a pretty decent weapon. A shot that they neither need to use an activation, nor make an ammo check, for.

 

[spafe]

I'd only overcharge if I needed to, like, a brute or goliath forge boss is barrelling down the corridor towards my champ, I'm not going to waste time with a standard shot when I can overcharge and one shot the target. I like the option for just that, the option to go big when you need to.

However I have happily given unstable to approx. half my orlock gang in the name of applying blaze, so I am far more comfortable blowing my own fighters up than most would be

 

[Bracer]

Variance means nothing without expected value. So start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

In this case, you could look at what level of firepower you need to direct towards an Escher leader or champion in order to attain a 1/12 chance of taking them out. You will realize that, by using maximum firepower with a plasma weapon, you are essentially giving your opponent a free shot at you with a pretty decent weapon. A shot that they neither need to use an activation, nor make an ammo check, for.

I'd only overcharge if I needed to, like, a brute or goliath forge boss is barrelling down the corridor towards my champ, I'm not going to waste time with a standard shot when I can overcharge and one shot the target. I like the option for just that, the option to go big when you need to.

However I have happily given unstable to approx. half my orlock gang in the name of applying blaze, so I am far more comfortable blowing my own fighters up than most would be

I actually believe you guys are saying the same thing.

In the expected_value link, the following example is given:

"If one rolls the die

times and computes the average (arithmetic mean) of the results,

grows, the average will almost surely converge to the expected value, a fact known as the strong law of large numbers."

So in this respect, i realize i was wrong...

Every probability after the first 1/12 roll increases to 2/12 and then 3/12 until we reach the 12/12 which means it is a certainty i will roll a bad result.

However, i as a debater left myself a clause. Which is that i might only overcharge once every game for 12 games. Whereas i can not really see this happening in reality. Instead its more like what spafe said. I'll use it on a golden opportunity and allow myself a small budget of uses, ballparked at 2. I could still loose big, due to variance i.e. my first roll could be an OOA. But yeah its a smaller risk.

However i was completely wrong about the unstable grav cannon build. Because i have no way to fire the darn thing on Low without unstable... unless i give an additional weapon to a champ like a longlas and run that...

 

[spafe]

Every probability after the first 1/12 roll increases to 2/12 and then 3/12 until we reach the 12/12 which means it is a certainty i will roll a bad result.

I'll be honest, when I sit down and really think about it, I can follow probability, but by and large I have innate enough understanding for wargames esk math to not need to do this. However, I think this statement is flawed/getting into the realms of higher level math thinking that might as well be magic.

The issue I have with it is, there is no certaintly. if you flipped a coin 99 times and it was heads everytime, alot of people would say the next time would be tails, but actually its still 50 50. Because the coin has no memory of what it has landed on before. Same with the dice. If you took 12 rolls, you'd expect 1 to be a ooa on unstable, but... if you've rolled 11 times and survived, the next time is still 1 in 12, not 12/12.

 

[MrAndersson]

Every probability after the first 1/12 roll increases to 2/12 and then 3/12 until we reach the 12/12 which means it is a certainty i will roll a bad result.

No, no, no. This is wrong on so many levels.

The strong law of large numbers doesn't kick in after 12 rolls to "correct" the probabilities. It takes tens of thousands of rolls for results to even out.

 

[spafe]

No, no, no. This is wrong on so many levels.

The strong law of large numbers doesn't kick in after 12 rolls to "correct" the probabilities. It takes tens of thousands of rolls for results to even out.

Thought so! glad I was on track with thinking that logic had flaws lol