Necromunda The Sump: General hobby venting thread (Beware: old men shouting at clouds)

[Mr. M]

I can't opine on how things are in Old Blighty, but out here on the western fringe I have to say that GW isn't exactly a hobby juggernaut. Anecdotally, my admittedly infrequent trips to the FLGS haven't impressed me with packed tables full of GW games. There seems to be a Saturday AOS/40k gathering at one store, but Friday nights are mostly MTG and board games. The only Warhammer Store in my area burnt down and was closed for about 3 years; now it has reopened but has really bad hours and I never see anyone in there when I pass by. I get the sense that if I and my few old gaming friends had the time, we could easily form the nucleus that persuades a larger group of gamers to play some non-GW game. Nor have I spoken to anyone at these stores who have some bizarre hang-up about using only GW models. Most are just very happy to meet fellow hobbyists and the chance to get some kind of game on the table. Tournaments and competitive play might be another deal entirely, but I have zero knowledge or interest in such things.

I really don't see a ton of fanatical GW cultists in my area (one of the largest cities in California), which to me means GW is exposed to the risk of fads changing or other miniature options that are cheaper or less constrained by weird supply problems. Oldsters like myself can also have significant influence that breaks people away from the GW plantation - especially if one has stuff that the newer crowd generally doesn't (like a nice DIY gaming board/terrain). While people of my vintange (and many of my fellow Tribesmen here) may not be GW's target market, it seems a foolish strategy to alienate your "seasoned" middle-aged customers since we can significantly influence the early gaming experiences of the next group of "target market teenagers." For example, I will likely introduce my kids to the 1st edition of Space Hulk and as they get older NCE; but I can't see myself encouraging them to get into any of the current or major GW games. Based on my conversations with other parents in my area, there are lots of board gamers, a handfull of D&D players, but I'm most likely the only one with a wargame/skirmish game hobby - so there is a possibility it will be my kids who introduce others to the miniature hobby, not a bunch of 40k players' kids influencing my kids' hobby preferences.

This is a long-winded way of saying that I find the idea that GW has reached its peak, or soon will, to be very plausible. I haven't been able to observe the community traction and market dominance to make me think otherwise; and combined with their strange scarcity/FOMO business model and blunders like their atrocious website, it seems to me like a business that could easily be heading for a downturn.

 

[MusingWarboss]

Well that was an interesting read.

“I’m not going to take the advice of some randoms on the internet over someone with actual experience working at GW”

Followed by a complete 180° in the same post:

“I’m not going to take the advise from people with actual experience in starting and running 3D printers but I will listen to this YouTuber who by their own admission failed at it, then got another YTr to set up a deal with a company to deliver £1000+ worth of free equipment and set it up for me only to say in the end that it wouldn’t be used anyway”

Has to be my favourite flip-flop so far. Sorry. Just made me laugh.

 

[ClockworkOrange]

On proxy models, again I prefer Warlords approach where it is actively encouraged in the first few pages of the rulebook. And seeing as Warlord was founded by ex GW employees they must know what they are doing.….

I must say I’m less a fan of direct STL copies, but most stuff out there is proxy/inspired by and I’d imagine very hard to prove is IP infringing. GW hasn’t managed to shut some of the big paid for STL houses down which kinda proves the point.

Also If I’ve taken the time to make something “cool” in my eyes and you don’t like it, the Trolls more likely to change the opponent/venue than the model.

Edit 1: As a parent of three I’m another who wonders where the next generation of GW customers will come from? it’s not a kids pocket money hobby now, if it ever was.

Edit 2: I’ve just noticed Raven changed his shed post to mention a disability, if that’s the barrier, I’ll happily come help set up your 3D printer as I’m sure many other UK Yaks would do to.

 

[Mr. M]

On the topic of GW hitting its peak, I just wanted to add in one more facet that I haven't seen mentioned either here or in the Tabletop Minions video. At least in my area, GW never managed to overcome the "miniature gaming is for nerds" stigma. The D&D crowd (and by extension the larger RPG community) got a massive boost because of Stranger Things - for a while at least D&D (and RPGs) actually became cool around here! I haven't seen anything comparable for tabletop wargaming. Maybe the popularity of Warhammer video games has done something to dull the edge of those "Nerd!" accusations that have haunted our hobby for so long, but I still get the sense that it is a bit too much most people even if they are willing to jump on the bandwagon and claim that D&D is sufficiently non-nerdy to try (or at least not deride). I think if GW was going to avoid coming down off its peak, it would need to find a way, possibly through luck or good product placement spending (like D&D did with Stranger Things), to become more acceptable to mainstream people. Heck, there are trendy moms at my kid's school that talk about their D&D sessions, and not in hushed voices where nobody can hear! I can't imagine having a similar conversation about Necromunda with the guys at work around the water cooler, or even with those D&D moms - and to me this seems like a huge barrier to GW's continued popularity, or at least its ability to grow.

 

[ClockworkOrange]

Henry Cavil is hopefully going to achieve just that @Mr. M I so want his new show to be “cool”

 

[Ardavion]

Lots of discussion today!

My personal thoughts/opinions:
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GW will, eventually, make themselves unaffordable, or be forced to maintain or lower prices that will reduce confidence from their investors, or lose enough customers capable of buying their products as to lose a future generation; there's only so many people interested in miniature wargaming, and if they're not caught young, the interest is typically diverted to another hobby.

How long that process takes, leading to whatever specific outcome that could qualify as GW "failing", depends on a lot of factors, including (but not limited to):

GW's competitors getting more exposure and market share as people look for alternatives to play, with fewer barriers to entry. This includes price, but also includes actual availability, and affects all potential customers, not just new (typically younger) hobbyists. Kids can't get mum and dad to "buy and forget" if they can't buy in the first place and have to go to eBay to pay scalpers, when they can buy a different game for cheaper from someone else, or simply tell their child "sorry honey, it was all sold out".

3D printing becoming more accessible and affordable, which is somewhat difficult to nail down given the changing technologies available - as is evident, your mileage may vary, but it isn't just limited to people having a setup of their own, but also people paying companies to print things for people. The setup also becoming more "maker space" friendly; smaller machines, better air filtration/gas capture or reduced noxious fumes from materials, more "all-in-one" setups or ways to have the various things to do 3D printing be easy to have, even if they're optional.

Other media or hobbies becoming more prominent as entertainment - which is pretty much the case already, since miniature wargaming was always pretty niche anyway, but today's entertainment may not be tomorrow's (computer games were how big a draw back in the 80s or 90s compared to now?). I'm not saying that something will magically appear and take the attention of all the young folk, but having other media or hobbies in general becoming more of the "pie" of people's attention and squeezing miniature wargaming down further. While you've got AAA game studios getting stripped to the bone now, video games are significantly less effort to get into than miniature wargaming, even when they're seeing the same ridiculous price issues.
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3D printing will become a bigger part of the hobby. Not necessarily a complete setup in everyone's homes, but there'll be enough distributed around that will make it more ubiquitous than it is now.

We already have multiple online stores offering 3D printing, some "big name" miniature manufacturers offering 3D printing options for their minis, many games trying to break into the market by offering their minis as STLs, more Kickstarter projects offering their minis as STLs, either as one of or indeed the only option... We have people on here offering to print things, and people can find maker spaces/craft spaces more and more that offer 3D printing, and people who know about it to teach the process.

While some people will hold out, either from lack of experience or personal philosophy, eventually people will look at the reality of 3D printing and it will take a larger slice of the miniature wargaming pie.
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Not sure about the "hobby trumpet", but if I understand it right, GW is at the pricey end of the hobby trumpet. Does this somehow make them more popular and people want to buy more of their products, as opposed to people bemoaning the cost and seeking cheaper hobby alternatives?

Does being at the pricey end mean they shouldn't be considered something that encourages people to get into the hobby?

Doesn't the hobby need something to encourage people to get into the hobby?

Wouldn't people who have been introduced to a particular ecosystem of models, say playing Mantic's Warpath system, want to remain in that ecosystem, unless that ecosystem pushed them and/or their gaming group out due to lack of availability or high prices?

Wouldn't 3D printing reduce problems with availability, as you can go to anyone, feasibly anywhere, with a 3D printer and pay them what they ask (plus postage) to print the models you want, instead of futilely sitting in a queue for hours to find the thing you want is instantly out of stock and not coming back anytime soon, if at all?
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I've mentioned pie a few times, I'm probably hungry.

 

[Space Truckin]

If GW licensed STLs maybe with some kind of digital management copyright whatevers and sold STLs especially of Resin kits I'd be interested.
Resin print vs Finecast...
Resin print any day would be my choice.

If we are talking doing what is morally just...paying over the top prices for plastics to meet shareholder profit margins or....i mean we could support the Ukrainian war [gaming] effort re casts with a dude with a slightly better performing webstore...Much better resin casts too!
So im told.

 

[Burgraph]

3d printing threatening GW, more like price hikes threatening GW. Had a laugh when I saw the Khemri box was more expensive than Bretonnia at the local until I realized what the price actually was

 

[Raven Morpheus]

Well that was an interesting read.

“I’m not going to take the advice of some randoms on the internet over someone with actual experience working at GW”

Followed by a complete 180° in the same post:

“I’m not going to take the advise from people with actual experience in starting and running 3D printers but I will listen to this YouTuber who by their own admission failed at it, then got another YTr to set up a deal with a company to deliver £1000+ worth of free equipment and set it up for me only to say in the end that it wouldn’t be used anyway”

Has to be my favourite flip-flop so far. Sorry. Just made me laugh.

I was stepping away from this discussion...

Thank you for paraphrasing and twisting what I said. There's no flip flop, no 180. As far as I was aware there's been a discussion within a discussion going on, one about GW "reaching a tipping point", potentially as a direct result of people 3d printing at home and "sticking it to the man" (laughable) and the other about people's experience of 3d printing.

I never stated "I’m not going to take the advise from people with actual experience in starting and running 3D printers". I was using Midwinter Minis apparent experience as an example to try to explain to certain commentors that their experience is not everyone's experience, because the mindset on display seems to be "it's great for me, it must be great for everyone", which is a typically insular mindset.

I'll take advice from "randoms on the internet", about doing actual 3d printing, why wouldn't I? However when it comes to the inner workings of GW including if they're at risk from outside factors the thoughts and views of ex-GW staff trump "randoms on the internet" who engage in 100% uninformed conjecture. End of.

I hope that clears that up for you MusingWarboss, or anyone else, however do feel free to further twist what I've said.



@Ardavion unfortunately you haven't understood the "hobby trumpet" concept correctly. The fat/wide end is the majority of a customer base/market, i.e. the inexperienced kids coming in and the simplified products aimed at them. The thin end is the minority of a customer base/market, i.e. those who are "seasoned" and often use more specialist products and niche tools, like those who 3d print. GW aim at the fat end.



Like I said in a previous post, I'm clearly banging my head against a brick wall here, so I'll step away again from this "we're 3d printing GW are so screwed" discussion, again MusingWarboss, or anyone else, do feel free to further twist what I've said...

 

[Raven Morpheus]

Edit 2: I’ve just noticed Raven changed his shed post to mention a disability, if that’s the barrier, I’ll happily come help set up your 3D printer as I’m sure many other UK Yaks would do to.

Yes IF I could get the shed cleared it opens up a few possibilities. Need help doing it though, that's only one barrier (for anything) though. The other would be having spare cash, which right now, today, I'm not sure I do. Another would be my mother. It's my (14 years) late father's shed and technically her house (it's rented) not mine, but I live with her (and technically I'm a "carer", despite my health/disability issues) and I've been adding to the shed's contents, "storing" my "stuff" in the shed. However, each time I've mooted the idea of clearing it/organising it so one can even get in it and for example actually use the bench tops (rather than have stuff just dumped on them), mother has been rather disinclined on giving a yay or nay for doing so.

Such a clearance idea is on hold at the moment anyway because currently I can't even stand up well enough to "supervise" anyone helping to ensure only the junk (wood scraps, broken office chair, tarp like stuff, broken/rusted tools and other rubbish) gets chucked...

 

[ClockworkOrange]

I’m enjoying hearing everyone’s thoughts about this, to sum up;

Lots of us who own 3D printers have said it’s neither difficult or expensive (relatively speaking) to get into. In fact 3D printing can save considerable amounts of cash.

Everyone has agreed that GW’s prices are now too high and even if you are prepared to pay them the new product is very difficult to obtain.

Everyone has agreed the new GW website is absolutely < angry words, redacted >

Many are worried about the impact of these high prices on the long term popularity of our beloved hobby. If people don’t play GW first will they ever get to the other games and suppliers?

Some even think that the combination of high prices, alternative suppliers and 3D printing might create a “Blockbuster” situation in the medium to long term.

Some of us think “the suits” know what they are doing at GW and the current high sales, profit being made and company performance proves this.

I’m not seeing anything that can’t all be true at once.

 

[ClockworkOrange]

Just thought I’d share an example of what GW are competing with these days, a fully playable army for £68.

Waffen SS Starter Army | Board Games | Zatu Games UK

Waffen SS Starter Army - £74.99 - and many other great board games are available for the lowest prices at Zatu Games UK! Browse our online store today!

www.board-game.co.uk

Waffen SS Starter Army

Tough, lavishly equipped and politically indoctrinated, SS troops formed over 38 divisions and numerous other regimental and battalion-sized units, totalling nearly a million men under arms. Their armoured units won many plaudits for their actions, and although relationships between regular army...

store.warlordgames.com

I mean yeah the sculpts aren’t quite as good as GW, but when painting rank and file do you really need that much detail? I also prefer the old way of having posable arms etc.

 

[Ben_S]

when it comes to the inner workings of GW including if they're at risk from outside factors the thoughts and views of ex-GW staff trump "randoms on the internet" who engage in 100% uninformed conjecture.

Minor point, but ex-staffers are likely to be better informed about how things were in their time. And they may even have some insight into how things are now. This might also include what people at GW think about 3d printing and the future.

But I'm not convinced that even those currently at GW, let alone the ex-staffers, really know what the future holds. On that, we're all speculating. Perhaps Blockbuster weren't worried by Netflix, until their business model collapsed.

 

[almic85]

Just thought I’d share an example of what GW are competing with these days, a fully playable army for £68.

Waffen SS Starter Army | Board Games | Zatu Games UK

Waffen SS Starter Army - £74.99 - and many other great board games are available for the lowest prices at Zatu Games UK! Browse our online store today!

www.board-game.co.uk

Waffen SS Starter Army

Tough, lavishly equipped and politically indoctrinated, SS troops formed over 38 divisions and numerous other regimental and battalion-sized units, totalling nearly a million men under arms. Their armoured units won many plaudits for their actions, and although relationships between regular army...

store.warlordgames.com

I mean yeah the sculpts aren’t quite as good as GW, but when painting rank and file do you really need that much detail? I also prefer the old way of having posable arms etc.

Just to throw my own fat head in here, I don’t think GW are really competing with whatever that game is, Bolt Action by the look of it, simply because it’s the wrong “flavour” with it being historical looking rather than fantasy / sci-fi.

GW’s real selling point is that their fluff and in universe story telling is actually fantastic and it makes you want to play games in it.

It’s why model agnostic games will never actually compete with GW games for popularity because if you can use whatever models you want then it breaks the immersion of the game, compared to GW where the official miniatures reinforce the story of the game.

3d printing will make a small dent in the grognard, tech-head and tight arse markets but I would (somewhat myopically) guess most players are something like me and generally can’t be arsed faffing around with printing my own miniatures, in much the same way I don’t faff around with green stuff sculpting.

I barely have enough time to paint the miniatures from the two low model count games (Necromunda and bloodbowl) that I do play, why on earth would I need to start printing my own pile of shame?

And if you do want to look at a gaming market where GW is still doing well despite 3rd party designers and miniature producers just take a look at bloodbowl. It’s pretty much 60-80% third party miniatures and it has done well enough that it has had two editions in recent years (and is rumoured for a third shortly).

 

[Tiny]

They're all competing in the same market. If someone is spending money on Bolt Action, Battletech, old Epic 40k minis on eBay, or even the latest video games, that is money they're not spending on GW products. They're all effectively competing for the same money. If GW put out products I like, I'd spend more money with them instead of with Warlord or Steam.

 

[Raven Morpheus]

[sigh]

Minor point, but ex-staffers are likely to be better informed about how things were in their time. And they may even have some insight into how things are now. This might also include what people at GW think about 3d printing and the future.

But I'm not convinced that even those currently at GW, let alone the ex-staffers, really know what the future holds. On that, we're all speculating. Perhaps Blockbuster weren't worried by Netflix, until their business model collapsed.

OK, so, I agree they probably don't have 100% insight into GW today, wasn't claiming that either. But it can't be disagreed that they are more informed than most. Although I'm sure someone will try.

10 or so years ago GW were at risk of collapse. GW gave staff a £2500 bonus the end of last year, because half-year profits rose 12%. - https://www.theguardian.com/busines...staff-2500-bonus-as-half-year-profits-rise-12

Their current CEO states they're in "great shape" (I thought that was also reported in The Guardian, but hey ho) - https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2024/01/games-workshop-record-profit/

But no, that annoying know-it-all down the pub who tells you how to play the slot machine and who's going to start WW3 says "nah, they're doomed, 3d printing mate" and that's what is believed the most...

That's the absurdity of this "stick it to the man" doomsaying, and the problem I have with it! It flies in the face of the reality of GWs position (they aren't Blockbusters) and what those who are actually in the know are saying. @almic85 and @Space Truckin are the only cogent views I've seen so far, the rest is straw clutching conjectural nonsense based on personal belief, if not a lack of understanding of big business, with refusal to acknowledge facts and evidence. And frankly it doesn't do any good.

On the point of Blockbusters v Netflix, you could use the same argument for, lets say, Amazon. Streaming has probably been touted as the home media killer, right, yet here we are with multiple streaming services for TV, Film, and music, alongside companies like Amazon still selling Blurays & DVDs, HMV still exist, just about, music artists still release CD's, vinyl has seen a resurgence...

Not quite the same as toy soldiers from GW I know, but I would hope it highlights the fallacy of listening to doomsayers on the outside of an industry.


Whilst I agree GW are not an invulnerable juggernaut (seen that term used by Americans, it seems GW is seen as weaker in the US), they are a humongous ship in the ocean with aeons to make course changes.

Tom Hibberd (I keep spelling his name wrong) left GW before Contrast Paint was launched. He'd actually been developing it years before. We all know GW have a 3yr game edition cycle. They plan years ahead. The idea they're suddenly going to get caught out by the rise of a bunch of malcontents using new niche tech to "stick it to the man" is, well, pffft...



Oh and just as an aside, I watched (Tabletop Minions) Adam Loper's Sunday livestream earlier, not expecting anything related to this, however, despite owning a resin printer, he responded to a question about 3d printing by stating it's not plug and play yet, even his wifi HP laser printer isn't as he has to continually fight with it. Funny that. I share his pain wrt wifi printers, had to buy a new one at xmas, feed rollers warped in the excessive summer heat on the old one, it's sat right next to my router and still drops the connection just when I need it, it's also a HP.

They're all competing in the same market. If someone is spending money on Bolt Action, Battletech, old Epic 40k minis on eBay, or even the latest video games, that is money they're not spending on GW products. They're all effectively competing for the same money. If GW put out products I like, I'd spend more money with them instead of with Warlord or Steam.

Gamers are already spending money on Bolt Action, Battletech, old Epic 40k minis on eBay, or even the latest video game, it hasn't affected GW. And it would seem that a lot of "seasoned" gamers buy into Bolt Action, Battletech, old Epic 40k AND GW. Adam Loper, just to put forward an example, seems to buy into multiple IPs, as well as GW, apparently he bought into Warlord's Judge Dredd recently...

Warlord, Steam and GW seem to be co-existing nicely it would seem from the actual financial data. Which is curious if they're actually competing for the same money...

Could it be that it goes back to the "hobby trumpet" and those gamers not being the fat end GW aim at...


But no, fairs fair, you all believe it, so it's true (couldn't find a "they're...")...

 

[Space Truckin]

I barely have enough time to paint the miniatures from the two low model count games (Necromunda and bloodbowl) that I do play, why on earth would I need to start printing my own pile of shame

Good grief does this hit home hard.

More of an existential hobby crisis I need to work out myself.
now breath.... and repeat.... my painting desk is a white ball of healing light...

 

[Tiny]

it hasn't affected GW.

It has.

Every £ a potential GW customer spends on non-GW products affects GW's potential sales, if only in a very small way.

Every miniature a 40k player buys on eBay or 3D prints is money directly out of GW's coffers. If I spend money on a monthly gym subscription, that is money that I could have otherwise spent with GW. Any non-essential hobbies all compete for the same chunk of disposable income.

They can all co-exist, but they're still all competitors, competing for the same pool of funds. The same way Tesco, Sainsburys and Asda can all have a shop in the same town selling similar products.

GW may aim at the "fat end of the trumpet".. but their income comes from the whole trumpet.

 

[Raven Morpheus]

It has.

Every £ a potential GW customer spends on non-GW products affects GW's potential sales, if only in a very small way.

Every miniature a 40k player buys on eBay or 3D prints is money directly out of GW's coffers. If I spend money on a monthly gym subscription, that is money that I could have otherwise spent with GW. Any non-essential hobbies all compete for the same chunk of disposable income.

They can all co-exist, but they're still all competitors, competing for the same pool of funds. The same way Tesco, Sainsburys and Asda can all have a shop in the same town selling similar products.

GW may aim at the "fat end of the trumpet".. but their income comes from the whole trumpet.

Or in other words, just another straw being clutched at. Evidence is contrary to your statement there. You're talking hypothetical sales lost, which cannot be proven, not actual "cold hard cash in the tills", and you can hypothesise alll daaay loong, it doesn't change the actual reality.

GW only care about income from the "fat end of the trumpet", it's the biggest slice, and where the majority of their income originates. Gamers like you, or I, or those buying Bolt Action, Battletech, old Epic 40k minis on eBay, or even the latest video game are inconsequential to GWs bean counters, we're so small a number we don't even show up on balance sheets.

Seems that's a bit hard to grasp...

Still, best be on the safe side and warn Kevin Rountree. He's under the impression GW are ""in great shape” despite trading during challenging economic times." and have been "delivering record group revenue, profit and dividends in the period." He might have to turn that big old SS GW around...

 

[Tiny]

I didn't say GW weren't making record profits. I said they're losing potential market share to competitors, whether that is 3d printing, other miniature companies or video games. Both things can be true at the same time.

Tesco are making record profits. They still lose market share every time Sainsburys open a new store.

If at some point they lose enough market share, whether through competition, making product people don't want to buy, scalpers destroying trust in the company, or simply pricing themselves out of the market, they will cease to make record profits. Not saying I want that to happen. I have an entire business that relies on GW customers for the most part.